The Market and Bitcoin
Warning Signs and Market Analysis
The Market and Bitcoin
The market is an interesting thing. Bitcoin has come to 20,000 twice. The first time it was crazy and exciting, but this time it's terrifyingly quiet, as if no one cares. Those who promised to wait for the next bull market to make money have disappeared during the bear market. They used all their tricks to buy into air coins and Bitcoin contracts and eventually lost all their money. Although Bitcoin has risen to near 20,000 again, it is still a feast for only a few people. This is the market, where only 20% of people make money, and the remaining 80% will be eliminated by time and cognition, repeating this endless cycle.
When people around you start asking how to open accounts and trade Bitcoin, you should be cautious. When you hear people talking about Bitcoin on public transportation, you should be highly vigilant. When your parents start asking you how to invest in coins, it's time to say goodbye to the market. This follows the Pareto principle of the market: when most people participate, it's time for us to retreat.
The greed index is 91, still at a peak. Grayscale is not working, but the market is unexpectedly rising. The capital is overwhelming, ignoring several bearish expectations for next week. It should be money from traditional institutions, a group of FOMO-infected people who are reckless with buying anything. Such an incremental investment can disrupt the market's rhythm, so the surge over the weekend was unexpected, but we have to respect the momentum.
The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P has reached a 10-month low, meaning that Bitcoin and the US stocks are once again decoupling. This is a good thing because many indicators indicate that the US stocks may fall at any time, and Bitcoin's independent upward trend is more likely to happen if it does not follow the US market.
The number of non-zero addresses for Ethereum has exceeded 50 million. This does not mean that there are 50 million cryptocurrency investors worldwide. I myself have more than 10 addresses. There are even more for exchanges, projects, market makers, and whales. However, there may still be 5-10 million real investors in the market with a lot of room for growth in the future.
19,200 is the last defense line for Bitcoin shorts. If it breaks through smoothly, it means that the market has escaped from the adjustment trend and is ready for new highs. Bitcoin's rise today has completely exceeded expectations. From the order book, it seems that some new super-institution is buying spot continuously, so it is possible that a new super-institution has entered the market.
Market Analysis for Various Cryptocurrencies
In this article, we will be discussing the current state of various cryptocurrencies and their market trends. Please keep in mind that the opinions expressed are the author's personal views and should not be taken as investment advice.
Bitcoin has seen a sharp rise in price over the weekend, due to reckless buying. However, the institution behind this buy is unknown, so it is wise to wait for more news before making any claims. As long as the price stays stable at 19200, one can continue to go long. Otherwise, follow the trend set by the madman in the picture below:
Ethereum is currently weaker than Bitcoin, due to its linkage. However, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust's share value has exceeded USD 74 million, and there is still logic for continued buying. Therefore, Ethereum has a long-term bullish outlook.
XRP experienced a weak rebound after an independent drop yesterday. There is no change in the downside logic, so it is best to avoid participating in XRP at this time. Reduce holdings near 0.54 during a rebound.
LINK is currently supported by the support level and is experiencing moderate rebound volume. However, there is no independent trend. If the market rises, LINK is likely to exceed the rise of the market.
BCH is expected to continue rebounding in the short term.
ADA is leading the mainstream's uptrend today, hitting the pressure level provided by the madman yesterday. It is expected to fluctuate around this level, and there is a chance to rise again later. Those who bought in yesterday can take profits and switch back to the market.
XMR is experiencing a follow-up uptrend, with a "two steps forward, one step back" pattern. It is still not recommended to chase after a big rise. Hold along the 5-day line.
FIL continues to fluctuate. If Bitcoin rises, FIL will rise as well.
DOT is linked to Ethereum.
UNI rebounded and broke through the neckline, but was carried back by Bitcoin. The probability of an independent decline in the short term is not high.
YFI has moderate rebound volume but limited sustainability. Strong resistance at 28000 is likely.
It is important to keep a close eye on the stability of Bitcoin at 19200. If it remains stable, there is no need to worry about the future. However, if it does not, continue to participate in the oscillation. This uptrend has exceeded expectations and requires a rapid change in mindset and strategy. Please note that this article represents the personal opinions of the author and not the objective viewpoint of Blockcast. All content and views are for reference only and should not be considered investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and Blockcast will not be responsible for any direct or indirect losses incurred by investor transactions.